Euro hits 3-month high, on course for third week of gains, European shares gain, Gold falls, Oil rises as traders await opec+ meeting on extending supply cuts-june 5th,2020
• German April Factory Orders (MoM) -25.8%,-19.7% forecast, -15.6% previous
• Spanish April Industrial Production (YoY) -33.6%,-12.2% previous
• UK May Halifax House Price Index (MoM) -0.2%,-0.7% forecast, -0.6% previous
• UK May Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 2.6%,2.7% previous
• Italian April Retail Sales (MoM) -10.5%,-20.5% previous
• Italian April Retail Sales (YoY) -26.3%, -18.4% previous
Wall Street's first decline for the month of June came yesterday in a seesaw session that was highlighted by an unexpected rise in continuing jobless claims, ECB stimulus, economy reopenings and nationwide protests. The Nasdaq joined the S&P 500 in negative territory and the Dow recorded a nominal gain as FAANGs fell back and American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) posted its best day on record. S&P 500 futures rebounded nearly 1% overnight, ahead of today's nonfarm-payrolls report forecast to show more than 8M job losses in May and a surge in the unemployment rate to nearly 20%.
If the job figures mentioned above are seen in today's data, it would mark a new post-WWII record and approach the worst levels since the Great Depression. Why is the market shrugging it off? While layoffs remained very high, they eased considerably in the second half of May as businesses reopened after locking down since mid-March to slow the spread of COVID-19. Manufacturing, services industries and consumer confidence levels are also stabilizing, adding to the hopeful signs of an economic recovery.
What else is happening...
NBA to vote on 22-team short-season return.
Thursday's Key Earnings
In Asia, Japan +0.7%. Hong Kong +1.7%. China +0.4%. India +0.8%.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.1%. Paris +1.9%. Frankfurt +1.5%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +1.2%. S&P +0.9%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +1.8% to $38.07. Gold -0.8% to $1713.50. Bitcoin +2.8% to $9820.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 0.85%
Today's Economic Calendar
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Consumer Credit
Al Sharpton delivered a powerful eulogy at George Floyd’s memorial as peaceful protests went on. Plus, the Trump-loving cop blocking reform in Minneapolis
Curfews were lifted from Los Angeles to Washington DC on Thursday as peaceful protests against police violence continued for another day in the wake of the killing of George Floyd by officers in Minneapolis.
Floyd’s family led the mourners at a memorial service in the Minnesota city – the first of three such events planned across the country – where the Rev Al Sharpton gave voice to the passion, anger and hope of the protesters in a moving eulogy:
What happened to Floyd happens every day in this country in education and health services and in every area of American life. It’s time for us to stand up in George’s name and say get your knee off our necks.
Euro at 2-1/2 month peak as ECB expands stimulus, greenback plunges ahead of U.S. nonfarm payroll report, Asian shares surge - friday. June 5th, 2020
Economic Data Ahead
Morning everyone. I’m Martin Farrer and these are the top stories this morning.
Britain’s test-and-trace system could take another four months before it is working properly, the Guardian has learned, raising concerns about how the country might cope with a second wave of coronavirus infections. Tony Prestedge, a banker drafted in to run the NHS scheme, told staff that the programme would be “imperfect” at launch and won’t be world class until September or October. Boris Johnson had said the “world-beating” scheme would be in place by 1 June. Official figures showed that there were 83% more deaths from dementia than usual in April as charities warned that reduced care and family visits during the crisis meant that sufferers were “just switching off”. A hospital doctor has resigned over Dominic Cummings refusal to quit as Johnson’s senior adviser over his lockdown car trip to Durham.
A summary of the past few hours:
Dollar slides as risk appetite grows, US stocks ends mixed, Gold gains 1%, Oil prices steady as market awaits clarity on opec+ output cuts-june 5th,2020
• ECB beefs up its bond-buying programme
• U.S. weekly jobless claims drop below 2 million
• Markets awaiting U.S. payrolls report on Friday
• US Imports 232.20B previous 200.69B, 232.20B previous
• US Exports 151.28B, 187.80B previous
The leading medical journal the Lancet has retracted a paper responsible for halting global trials of hydroxychloroquine in relation to Covid-19, with its editor, Richard Horton, describing the data behind the research, provided by a little-known US company, Surgisphere, as “a shocking example of research misconduct”. Control trials established by the World Health Organization and several countries around the world had been suspended on the basis of the paper’s findings but an investigation by Guardian Australia’s Melissa Davey has exposed how experts around the globe had doubts about the accuracy of the data provided by Surgisphere.
Euro falls ahead of ECB meeting, European shares inch lower, Gold gains, Oil drops on U.S. inventories and doubts over output cuts-june 3rd, 2020
• Swiss May CPI (YoY) -1.3%,-1.3% forecast, -1.1% previous
• Swiss May CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
• EU May IHS Markit Construction PMI 40.1, 31.9 previous
• UK May Construction PMI 28.9, 29.7 forecast, 8.2 previous
• UK May Car Registration (MoM) 368.6%,-98.3% previous
• UK May Car Registration (YoY) -89.0%,-97.3% previous
Aussie consolidates near 4-month peak, Dollar gains against Yen as risk appetite improves, investors eye ECB meeting outcome - Thursday, June 4th, 2020
Economic Data Ahead
All eyes today will be on the ECB's latest policy decision at 7:45 a.m. ET, with President Christine Lagarde speaking 45 minutes later. Anything less than a widely anticipated increase to the €750B Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program could trigger a market shock (remember in March when Lagarde inadvertently said the ECB was "not here to close [bond] spreads"?) A shot in the arm would come as eurozone powerhouse Germany, which has maintained a stance of fiscal prudence, took steps to accelerate a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Angela Merkel's coalition agreed on a sweeping €130B stimulus package - designed to spur consumer spending and business investment - and exceeded the top end of expectations by 30%.
Two of Hong Kong's biggest banks are backing China's controversial national security law a week after former Hong Kong chief executive Leung Chun-ying blasted HSBC for its silence. HSBC said on social media that it "respects and supports all laws that stabilize Hong Kong's social order," while Standard Chartered (OTCPK:SCBFF) later announced it believed the law can "help maintain the long term economic and social stability of Hong Kong." HSBC -1.1% premarket.
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong’s Legislative Council passed a controversial national anthem bill on Thursday that would make disrespecting China’s national anthem a criminal offence, a move critics see as the latest sign of Beijing’s tightening grip on the city.
The ruling could stoke further protests just as people in Hong Kong are set to commemorate the bloody 1989 crackdown by Chinese troops in and around Tiananmen Square by lighting candles across the city.