Euro gains on weaker Dollar, U.S. stimulus doubts, European shares dips,gold gains, Oil rises towards $41 on U.S. gulf shutdowns, outlook weak-october 27th,2020
• Finnish Oct Consumer Confidence -6.9,-5.9 previous
•French Sewp PPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.1% previous
•Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q3) 16.26%, 15.90% forecast, 15.33% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) 3.1%,3.0% previous
•EU Sep Loans to Non Financial Corporations 7.1%,7.1% previous
•EU Sep M3 Money Supply (YoY) 10.4%, 9.6% forecast, 9.5% previous
•France Jobseekers Total 3,606.3K, 3,621.5K previous
•UK Oct CBI Distributive Trades Survey -23, 1 forecast,11 previous
•US Sep Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.8%,0.4% forecast,0.6% previous
•US Sep Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.9%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US Sep Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 3.4%,0.9% previous
•US Sep Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 1.0%, 0.5% forecast, 1.9% previous
Election, coronavirus, earnings, stimulus
Concerns about COVID-19 infection rates appear to have come back to the fore for markets as average daily cases hit a record high in the U.S., just days away from the presidential election. Wall Street sold off on Monday, led by a decline in energy, industrial stocks and other cyclicals, prompting the Dow to slide 650 points to record its worst week since September. Echoing the weakness, compounded with little hope of a stimulus package from Washington, U.S. stock index futures hugged the flatline in the overnight session. "To me, this is Phase 2 of the pandemic," said Frank Rybinski, chief macro strategist at Aegon Asset Management. "Until we get some eradication of the virus, it's going to be like a gray cloud."
Third quarter reports
More than one third of the S&P 500 index components, or 186 companies, are set to report Q3 results this week, including some of the top names in the index. Today's lineup includes manufacturing behemoth's 3M (NYSE:MMM) and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), healthcare giants Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and Merck (NYSE:MRK), as well as tech titans Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD). Sideshow? While net earnings are surprising to the upside, with the exception of a few misses, the market seems laser focused on the election, COVID-19 and any news related to stimulus talks.
Twillio - The cloud communications site reported a 52% jump in third quarter revenue in its latest quarter but an overall loss from operations of $112.3 million for the third quarter, the number compared to a loss of $94.7 million for the third quarter of 2019. The company reported 208,000 Active Customer Accounts as of September 30, 2020, up 21% year-over-year. Dollar-based net expansion rate, calculated using total revenue, was 137% for the third quarter of 2020. Piper Sandler PT increase.
Elly Lilly - The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said late yesterday it will not enroll any more participants in a Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating Eli Lilly's antibody treatment in hospitalized COVID-19 patients due to the low likelihood that it will demonstrate a treatment benefit. Enrollment has been officially closed. The company also reported quarterly results this morning that fell short of analysts' expectations as increased costs to develop COVID-19 treatments and lower demand for some its medicines weighed. Lilly said it expects 2020 COVID-19 research and development expense to be roughly $400 million. Net income fell 4% to $1.21 billion, or $1.33 per share, excluding items, the drugmaker earned $1.54 per share, below analysts' average estimate of $1.71 per share.
Aussie gains on upbeat Chinese data, greenback eases as investors await U.S. election, Asian shares plunge - Tuesday, October 27th, 2020
Economic Data Ahead
Key Events Ahead
Dollar gains in surge in covid cases, U.S. stimulus worries,Wall street closes down,gold slips, Oil drops 3% as virus infections, Lybian Oil output rebound-october 27th,2020
• US Sep Chicago Fed National Activity 0.27, 0.79 previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction -0.638%,-0.685% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction -0.652%, -0.678% previous
• French 12-Month BTF Auction -0.673%,-0.646% previous
• US Sep New Home Sales (MoM) 2.8% forecast, 4.8% previous
• US Sep New Home Sales 959K, 1,025K forecast, 1,011K previous
• US Oct Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index 19.8,13.6 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 0.100%, 0.100% previous
• US 6-Month Bill Auction 0.110%, 0.115% previous
Sterling steadies against Dollar as Brexit talks extends, European stocks fall,gold slips, Oil drops on rising virus cases, increasing Lybian output-october 26th,2020
•German Oct Business Expectations 95.0, 96.5 forecast, 97.7 previous
•German Oct Current Assessment 90.3, 89.8 forecast, 89.2 previous
•German Oct Ifo Business Climate Index 92.7, 93.0 forecast, 93.4 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction -0.685% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction -0.678% previous
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction -0.646% previous
•14:00 US Sep New Home Sales (MoM) 2.8% forecast, 4.8% previous
•14:00 US Sep New Home Sales 1,025K forecast, 1,011K previous
Flurry of dealmaking
Bayer (OTCPK:BAYRY) is paying as much as $4B for U.S. biotech firm Asklepios BioPharmaceutical, bolstering its pharmaceuticals division as it continues to reel from its acquisition of crops giant Monsanto (and cancer-related Roundup lawsuits). The latest deal, which includes upfront consideration of $2B and potential milestone payments of up to $2B, is a bet on cutting-edge gene therapy, which offers the potential to cure a wide range of often-rare diseases by editing errors in the body's instruction manual. Drugmakers including Novartis (NYSE:NVS), Roche Holding (OTCQX:RHHBY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) have also made big bets on the industry, snapping up gene therapy makers.
Dunkin' may sell and go private
Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin Robbins chains owner Dunkin' Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN) confirmed preliminary talks to be acquired by Inspire Brands after the NYT reported on the negotiations. Inspire would take Dunkin' private at $106.5 per share, valuing the company at $8.8B, or a 20% premium over DNKN's closing price of $88.79 on Friday. While Dunkin' said "there is no certainty that any agreement will be reached," if successful, Inspire would add the new assets to the Buffalo Wild Wings, Arby's Sonic, and Jimmy John's chains that it already owns. DNKN +19% premarket.
More M&A: Blackstone to buy Simply Self Storage for about $1.2B.
(CNBC) Futures tied to major U.S. equity benchmarks traded lower in early morning trading on Monday as Wall Street headed for the last full trading week ahead of Election Day.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 307 points. The S&P 500 futures and the Nasdaq 100 futures both also traded in negative territory.
The decline in futures came amid a record surge in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. The country saw more than 83,000 new infections on both Friday and Saturday after outbreaks in Sun Belt states, surpassing a previous record of roughly 77,300 cases set in July, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Sunday that the U.S. will not get control of the pandemic amid the surge in new cases. Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff and three aides tested positive for coronavirus, but his office said he will not quarantine himself.
(Seeking Alpha) Stocks rallied to finish Friday higher, but were down for the week with earnings unable to shake the market out of its habit of jumping and dropping on stimulus headlines. The S&P 500 was down about 0.6% for the week. The Nasdaq off a little more than 1% during the week. The broader market found itself in a fairly tight range through the week of trading. Mixed quarterly results couldn't help build traction, leaving sentiment vulnerable to positive and negative stimulus negotiations headlines. "It's generally been a little more of a selling market, and a lot of that has to do with waiting to see whether or not we get a fiscal stimulus package before the election,” said Sal Bruno, chief investment officer at IndexIQ. "The odds of that are getting lower and lower the closer we get to the election," he added.
The biggest listing ever
China's largest payments company is gearing up for a dual listing in Hong Kong and Shanghai in what could become the world's biggest IPO on record. Ant Financial has obtained clearance for the offering from Shanghai's STAR Market, China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Hong Kong Stock exchange, while pricing could come next week. Ant, backed by Chinese e-commerce major Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), could raise about $35B through the concurrent IPOs - at a valuation of at least $280B - surpassing Saudi Aramco's (ARMCO) $29.4B record set last December
Sterling on track for weekly gain as Brexit negotiations intensify, European stocks rise, Gold ticks up, Oil rises above $42 as possible opec+ cut extension offsets demand concern-october 23rd 2020
•UK Sep Retail Sales (MoM) 1.5%,0.4% forecast,0.8% previous
•UK Sep Core Retail Sales (YoY) 6.4%,5.0% forecast, 4.3% previous
•UK Sep Core Retail Sales (MoM) 1.6%,0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK Sep Retail Sales (YoY) 4.7%, 3.7% forecast, 2.8% previous
• French Oct Manufacturing PMI 51.0, 51.0 forecast, 51.2 previous
•French Oct Services PMI 46.5, 46.8 forecast, 47.5 previous
•French Oct Markit Composite PMI 47.3, 48.0 forecast, 48.5 previous
•German Oct Manufacturing PMI 58.0, 55.1 forecast, 56.4 previous
•German Oct Services PMI 48.9, 49.2 forecast, 50.6 previous
•German Oct German Composite PMI 54.5, 53.2 forecast, 54.7 previous
Employees or contractors?
Uber (NYSE:UBER) and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) must classify their drivers in California as employees, according to a state appeals court ruling that threatens to upend their business models. The order makes the two even more dependent on Proposition 22, a ballot initiative set for Nov. 3 that would supersede any court rulings. It has so far raised more than $189M from the companies, along with DoorDash (DOORD), Postmates (POSTM) and Instacart (ICART), making it the most expensive proposition in California's history. Should it pass, the companies say they will guarantee new protections to workers, but should it fail, they would likely explore other appeals options, like sending the case to the California Supreme Court.
Stimulus deal remains elusive
It's been quite a choppy trading week on Wall Street, and the trend didn't stop overnight, with U.S. stock index futures inching into the green after spending the first half of session in the red. While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said progress on a stimulus deal was "just about there," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow cautioned "significant policy differences" remained, which were unlikely to be resolved before the election. On the economy, the latest weekly initial jobless claims dropped 55,000 to fall below 800,000 for first time since March, while about a fifth of S&P 500 companies have so far reported Q3 results, of which 84.1% beat earnings estimates.
Kiwi slumps as CPI misses expectations, Dollar steadies following U.S. presidential debate, Asian shares consolidate - Friday, October 23rd, 2020
Economic Data Ahead
(CNBC) U.S. stock futures slipped on Thursday night as Wall Street weighed the potential for additional fiscal stimulus, news on the earnings and coronavirus treatment fronts.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped 30 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% along with Nasdaq 100 futures.
Intel shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading following the release of mixed quarterly numbers for the chip maker. The company’s earnings were in line with analyst expectations, but revenue from its data center business fell short of analyst estimates.
Meanwhile, Gilead Sciences gained 7.1% after the Food and Drug Administration approved the company’s drug, remdesivir, for use as a treatment against the coronavirus.
The Dow and S&P 500 each gained 0.5% during regular trading while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.2% after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi signaled she and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were making progress in their fiscal stimulus negotiations.
U.S Dollar index edges up from 7-week lows, Wall street rises, Gold eases, Oil struggles to recover after U.S. gasoline stocks build-october 23rd 2020
•U.S. stimulus talks remain in focus
• US Weekly jobless claims dip below 800,000, but remain elevated
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 811.25K, 866.25K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 787K,860K forecast, 898K previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 8,373K,9,500K forecast, 10,018K previous
• Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 585.3B, 585.3B previous
• EU Oct Consumer Confidence-15.5, -15.0 forecast, -13.9 previous
• US Sep Existing Home Sales6.54M, 6.30M forecast, 6.00M previous
Sterling holds near new highs as Brexit talks restart, European stocks fall, Gold slips, Oil slips on weaker demand outlook after U.S. gasoline stocks build-october 22nd 2020
•German Nov GfK German Consumer Climate -3.1, -2.8 forecast,-1.6 previous
•French Oct Business Survey 93, 96 forecast, 96 previous
•UK Oct CBI Industrial Trends Orders -34, -45 forecast, -48 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 866.25K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 860K forecast, 898K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 9,500K forecast, 10,018K previous
•13:00 Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 585.3B previous
•14:00 EU Oct Consumer Confidence -15.0 forecast, -13.9 previous
•15:00 US Sep Existing Home Sales 6.30M forecast, 6.00M previous
Never-ending stimulus talks
While stimulus negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continue today, U.S. stock futures fell 0.3% overnight amid increasing talk of a vote after the election. On the economic calendar, initial jobless claims are likely to fall to 860K for the week ended Oct. 17, down from 898K in the prior week, but still well above the pre-pandemic record of 695K. Earnings season is also heating up, with Q3 results expected from AT&T (NYSE:T), Coca Cola (NYSE:KO), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) and Southwest (NYSE:LUV). Don't forget the last presidential debate. Investors will be on the lookout for possible surprises tonight as President Trump locks horns with Democratic nominee Joe Biden at 9 p.m. ET.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stuck to its delivery target of a half a million vehicles this year, calling Model Y and Shanghai production key factors in hitting the mark. Shares rose 3.3% AH to $436/share on the forecast, after receiving a boost from the EV maker's fifth consecutive quarterly profit. CEO Elon Musk also gave additional details on the full self-driving [FSD] beta rollout, production ramp and the company's future robotaxi system.
Aussie off 1-week peak, greenback steadies on U.S. stimulus concerns, Asian shares plunge - Thursday, October 22nd, 2020
Economic Data Ahead
Key Events Ahead
Dollar index hits seven-week low with covid stimulus in focus ,Wall street slips, Gold jumps 1%, Oil prices fall as inventory report reflects demand weakness-october 22nd, 2020
•Canada Sep New Housing Price Index (MoM) 1.2%, 0.5%forecast ,0.5% previous
•Canada Aug Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4%,1.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Canada Aug Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5%, 0.9% forecast,-0.4% previous
•Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) 1.8%,1.7% previous
•Canada Median CPI (YoY) 1.9%, 1.9% previous
•Canada Sep CPI (YoY) 0.5%,0.4% forecast,0.1% previous
•Canada Sep CPI (MoM) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•Canada Sep Core CPI (MoM) 0.1%, 0.0% previous
• US Seevol Cushing Storage Report 1.180M, 3.923M previous
• US Gasoline Inventories 1.895M,-1.829M forecast, -1.626M previous
Euro gains as investors focus on U.S. stimulus, European stocks fall, Gold hits one-week peak, Oil prices slip as U.S. inventory build stokes fears of supply glut-october 21st,2020
•UK Sep CPI, n.s.a 109.10 , 108.60 previous
•UK Sep PPI Input (MoM) 1.1%,-0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
•UK Sep PPI Output (MoM) -0.1% 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK Sep PPI Output (YoY) -0.9%,-0.9% forecast, -0.9% previous
•UK Sep RPI (MoM ) 0.3%,0.4% forecast, -0.3% previous
•UK Sep RPI (YoY) 1.1% , 1.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK Sep Public Sector Net Borrowing 35.37B, 32.40B forecast, 35.20B previous
•UK Sep PPI Input (YoY) -3.7%,-5.5% forecast, -5.8% previous
•UK Sep CPI (YoY) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK Sep CPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, -0.4% previous
Can Tesla hit 2020 delivery target?
All eyes will be on Tesla's (TSLA) Q3 results this afternoon after the electric carmaker reported record vehicle deliveries earlier this month. Despite a global pandemic and economic upheaval, Elon Musk has stuck to a forecast of delivering half a million vehicles in 2020 and his latest commentary will be of particular note. While several analysts believe the goal is attainable, it would mean Tesla must deliver more than 181,600 vehicles in Q4, a 30% increase from record Q3 deliveries.
Good news, bad news
Snap (NYSE:SNAP) soared 24% AH on record Q3 revenues that crushed estimates (+52% to $679M), while attracting the highest-ever number of advertisers to its platform. That's due in part to the summer boycott against Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), which saw advertisers take their money elsewhere due to the social network's stance on hate speech. Meanwhile, the pandemic subscription boom faded for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), which only added a little over 2M subscribers last quarter (vs. 16M in Q1 and 10M in Q2). Shares fell 5.4%, as the company said additions in 2021 would be down compared to this year if the world recovered from the COVID pandemic.