Dollar dips as FED rate cut weakens greenback, Wall street ends lower,gold gains 1%,Oil prices decline on U.S. pipe disruptions, weak Chinese data - November 1st, 2019.
• Dollar falls to its lowest since Oct. 21
• China casts doubts about long-term trade deal with US
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,690K, 1,680K forecast, 1,683K previous
• US Sep Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 1.7% , 1.7% forecast, 1.8% previous
• US Sep Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q3) 0.60%, 0.50% previous
• US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q3) 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
• US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q3) 0.90%, 0.70% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 218K, 215K forecast, 213K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 214.75K, 215.25K previous
• US Sep Personal Income (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast 0.5% previous
• US Sep Personal Spending (MoM ) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Canada Aug GDP (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Russia Central Bank Reserves (USD) 539.9B, 537.2B previous
• US Oct Chicago PMI 43.2, 48.4 forecast, 47.1 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 21:30 Australia Oct AIG Manufacturing Index 54.7 previous
• 22:00 Australia Manufacturing PMI 50.1 forecast, 50.3 previous
• 23:30 Japan Sep Jobs/applications ratio 1.59 forecast, 1.59 previous
• 23:30 Japan Sep Unemployment Rate 2.3%,2.2% previous
• 00:30 Australia PPI (YoY) (Q3) 1.8% forecast, 2.0% previous
• 00:30 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q3) 0.3%,0.4% previous
• 00:30 Japan Oct Manufacturing PMI 48.5,48.9 previous
• 01:45 China Oct Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.0 forecast, 51.4 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 16:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 17:00 US FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as investors evaluated whether the Federal Reserve would continue to cut rates, and after European data beat expectations. The Fed on Wednesday lowered its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a target range of 1.50% to 1.75%.Market participants remain concerned about a slowdown in the U.S. economy as the trade war between the United States and China continues, however, which could force the Fed’s hand. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1175 (Daily High), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1234 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1079 (Oct 30th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against dollar on Thursday, as weak dollar and the falling risks of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal fuelled demand for sterling. Dollar weakened on Wednesday following comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve on interest rate cut. The Fed lowered its policy rate to 1.50%-1.75% on Wednesday, but dropped a previous reference in its statement to “act as appropriate” to sustain the economic expansion. The pound strengthened to as much as $1.2975 on Thursday, closing in on a five-month high above $1.30 hit last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2971 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2885 (9 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2691 (21 DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as domestic data showed modest economic growth, with the currency steadying after it was pressured the day before by a more dovish tone from the Bank of Canada. Canada's economy gained 0.1% in August, a touch less than analysts expected, amid a rebound in manufacturing and an uptick in services-producing industries, Statistics Canada data showed. At (1926 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3164 to the greenback.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3179 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3221 (50 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3134 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3102 (5 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance dented the dollar. The U.S. central bank on Wednesday cut interest rates for the third time this year to help sustain U.S. growth despite a slowdown in other parts of the world, but signalled there would be no further reductions unless the economy takes a turn for the worse. Strong resistance can be seen at 108.22 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 109.32 (Oct 30th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.61 (50 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 107.00 (Psychological level).
- European shares rose on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates, but a slump in auto and energy stocks kept gains in check as investors digested a fresh batch of earnings.
- UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.12 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.62 percent.
- U.S. stocks dropped on Thursday as uncertainty around a potential trade deal between United States and China overshadowed strong earnings reports from Apple and Facebook.
- Dow Jones closed down by 0.52 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.30 percent, Nasdaq finished the down by 0.14 percent.
- The U.S. Treasury yield curve was flatter on Thursday after data showing a marginal rise in consumer spending in September cast doubts on consumers’ ability to continue driving the economy as business investment slumps.
- The spread between two- and 10-year yields stood at 15.5 basis points Thursday morning, down from a close of 17.2 basis points on Wednesday. The flattening yield curve indicates market participants believe the U.S. Federal Reserve may be pausing its interest rate cuts too soon.
- Gold prices jumped over 1% on Thursday supported by an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and as uncertainty surrounding a U.S.-China trade deal bolstered the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
- Spot gold was 1% higher at $1,509.97 an ounce by (1605 GMT), having earlier risen to a near one-week high of $1514.20. Prices were set for a monthly gain of more than 2%.U.S. gold futures were up 1% at $1,511.
- Oil prices were nearly 2% lower on Thursday after a leak on a key U.S. pipeline disrupted supply flows and on data showing weak factory activity in China.
- Brent futures were down 40 cents, or 0.7%, at $60.21 a barrel by 12:08 p.m. EDT (1608 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 94 cents, or 1.7%, to $54.12.
- The front-month Brent contract for December delivery expires on Thursday. Futures for January delivery LCOc2 were down about 1.1% to $59.53.